Authors:
Vincent Mark Aka

Addresses:
Department of Mathematics, Rivers State University, Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria.

Abstract:

This research explores the complex relationship between macroeconomic disruptions and maritime transport indicators in Nigeria using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approach. It primarily examines Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), Unemployment Rate (UR), Dry Bulk Transport (DBT), and Non-Oil Bulk Transport (NOT), utilising annual time-series information spanning from 1982 to 2023. Unit root tests indicate that all variables are integrated of order one (I (1). At the same time, Johansen cointegration results suggest no long-term equilibrium relationships among the variables, validating the use of the VAR model in first differences. The VAR analysis reveals short-term connections and detects significant sectoral spillover effects. Granger causality tests indicate a one-way causality from RGDP to NOT and from DBT to NOT, emphasising how economic performance and dry bulk transportation impact non-oil maritime operations. Furthermore, impulse response and variance decomposition analyses indicate that disturbances in DBT and NOT increasingly influence RGDP over time, although long-term stability remains constrained. These results highlight the short-term vulnerability of Nigeria's maritime transport sector to macroeconomic changes, providing valuable insights for policy formulation regarding infrastructure development and economic stability.

Keywords: Macroeconomic Disruptions; External Shocks; Sectoral Effects; Spillover Effects; Maritime Transport; Vector Autoregressive (VAR); Infrastructure Development; Dry Bulk Transport (DBT).

Received on: 19/01/2025, Revised on: 20/04/2025, Accepted on: 11/07/2025, Published on: 23/11/2025

DOI: 10.69888/FTSTPL.2025.000504

FMDB Transactions on Sustainable Technoprise Letters, 2025 Vol. 3 No. 4, Pages: 187-199

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